Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | SF -115 SMC -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +17 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | SF -2.1 (-19.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -0.4 (-17.4) | 131.9 (+5.1) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -0.3 (-17.3) | 131.8 (+5.2) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -1.8 (-18.8) | 133.9 (+3.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SF -1.9 (-18.9) | 134.1 (+2.9) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | SMC 79 – 54 SF |
| Jan 14, 2026 | SMC 82 – 68 SF |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SF 65 – 64 SMC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SMC 71 – 51 SF |
| Feb 21, 2024 | SMC 70 – 66 SF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 15-1 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-4 |
| Away | 6-6 | 9-0 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 60.2 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#50) | 12.0 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#63) | 1.35 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#67) | 1.79 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#89) | 0.572 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 40.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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