Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | SF +180 SMC -215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +1 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -3.9 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -2.0 (+3.0) | 131.5 (-2.5) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -0.9 (+1.9) | 131.8 (-2.8) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -0.6 (+1.6) | 132.4 (-3.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -1.4 (+2.4) | 133.2 (-4.2) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | SMC 79 – 54 SF |
| Jan 14, 2026 | SMC 82 – 68 SF |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SMC 71 – 51 SF |
| Feb 21, 2024 | SMC 70 – 66 SF |
| Jan 21, 2024 | SMC 77 – 60 SF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 17-1 |
| Home | 17-2 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 61.8 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#71) | 15.4 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#57) | 2.71 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#60) | 3.54 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#53) | 0.626 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 14.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 41.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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