Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | SMC -350 SF +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +4 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -9.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -9.1 (-5.1) | 135.5 (+0.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -8.8 (-4.8) | 131.6 (+4.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -8.0 (-4.0) | 135.3 (+0.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -7.9 (-3.9) | 137.2 (-1.2) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | SMC 79 – 54 SF |
| Jan 14, 2026 | SMC 82 – 68 SF |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SF 65 – 64 SMC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SMC 71 – 51 SF |
| Jan 21, 2024 | SMC 77 – 60 SF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 11-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 9-0 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.2 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 14.8 (#18) | 8.8 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#45) | 1.56 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#45) | 1.86 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#33) | 0.558 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 39.1% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 76.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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