Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -550 SF +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +20 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -9.0 (+11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (-14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -9.6 (+10.4) | 133.2 (-11.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -8.7 (+11.3) | 136.8 (-14.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -8.5 (+11.5) | 136.8 (-14.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -9.2 (+10.8) | 135.6 (-13.6) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | SMC 79 – 54 SF |
| Jan 14, 2026 | SMC 82 – 68 SF |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SF 65 – 64 SMC |
| Feb 21, 2024 | SMC 70 – 66 SF |
| Jan 21, 2024 | SMC 77 – 60 SF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 13-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 17-2 |
| Away | 9-1 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.8 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 13.8 (#35) | 8.2 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#40) | 1.80 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.02 (#32) | 2.19 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#43) | 0.574 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.73 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 42.4% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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