Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
West Coast Conference · The Sobrato Center · January 14, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread SMC -5.5 Away covered
O/U 141.5 Over
Money SF +215 / SMC -265
Model Predictions
Spread Total SF win
Actual SMC +14 150 Lost
Massey SMC -5.6 (-8.4)
Massey Totals 142.5 (+7.5)
Bradley-Terry 18%
Weighted B-T 8%
Efficiency Plus ML SMC -3.1 (-10.9) 137.9 (+12.1) 33%
Baseline Tuned ML SMC -4.3 (-9.7) 139.9 (+10.1) 31%
Baseline ML SMC -3.7 (-10.3) 141.2 (+8.8) 38%
Baseline Plus ML SMC -3.9 (-10.1) 139.4 (+10.6) 37%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 8, 2026 SMC 7954 SF
Feb 7, 2025 SF 6564 SMC
Jan 24, 2025 SMC 7151 SF
Feb 21, 2024 SMC 7066 SF
Jan 21, 2024 SMC 7760 SF

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SF SMC
Overall 17-16 27-6
Conference 8-10 16-2
Home 10-6 17-0
Away 4-7 8-2
Neutral 3-3 2-4
Last 5 3-2 5-0
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 73.9 76.8
Avg Pts Against 73.8 65.2
Massey 4.4 (#113) 13.4 (#38)
Bradley-Terry 0.81 (#105) 2.93 (#25)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.27 (#99) 4.33 (#17)
RPI 0.531 (#110) 0.652 (#13)
Shooting & Four Factors SF SMC
FG% 43.4% 47.1%
3PT% 33.7% 37.4%
REB / G 38.5 38.9
OREB / G 11.7 11.9
AST / TO 1.29 1.30
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.3% 53.7%
TOV% 16.2% 17.3%
ORB% 33.8% 38.0%
FT Rate 28.0% 32.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.7% 46.9%
Opp TOV% 13.8% 15.4%
DRB% 72.1% 74.8%
Opp FT Rate 23.0% 17.8%

Game Analysis

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