Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | SF +215 SMC -265 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +14 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -5.6 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -3.9 (-10.1) | 139.4 (+10.6) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -3.1 (-10.9) | 137.9 (+12.1) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -4.3 (-9.7) | 139.9 (+10.1) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -3.7 (-10.3) | 141.2 (+8.8) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | SMC 79 – 54 SF |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SF 65 – 64 SMC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SMC 71 – 51 SF |
| Feb 21, 2024 | SMC 70 – 66 SF |
| Jan 21, 2024 | SMC 77 – 60 SF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 27-6 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 16-2 |
| Home | 10-6 | 17-0 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#113) | 13.4 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#105) | 2.93 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#99) | 4.33 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#110) | 0.652 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 38.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 32.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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