Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
| Money | NIA -175 MRST +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +2 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | NIA -7.6 (-9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.4 (+10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -4.7 (-6.7) | 128.4 (+1.6) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -3.7 (-5.7) | 127.9 (+2.1) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -4.1 (-6.1) | 127.8 (+2.2) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -4.8 (-6.8) | 126.5 (+3.5) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | MRST 58 – 46 NIA |
| Feb 23, 2025 | MRST 64 – 61 NIA |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MRST 67 – 65 NIA |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MRST 65 – 59 NIA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | MRST 63 – 62 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 6-14 |
| Home | 9-4 | 5-10 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#242) | -7.5 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#207) | -1.49 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#237) | -1.87 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#193) | 0.407 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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