Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | MRST -150 NIA +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +1 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | MRST -6.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -3.9 (-2.9) | 132.3 (-7.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -2.9 (-1.9) | 130.0 (-5.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -4.2 (-3.2) | 129.1 (-4.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -4.0 (-3.0) | 129.0 (-4.0) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | MRST 58 – 46 NIA |
| Feb 23, 2025 | MRST 64 – 61 NIA |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MRST 67 – 65 NIA |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MRST 65 – 59 NIA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | NIA 67 – 62 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 9-4 | 5-9 |
| Away | 8-8 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.2 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#205) | -5.3 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#234) | -0.81 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#251) | -1.13 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#247) | 0.466 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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