Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | MRST -138 NIA +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +6 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | MRST -2.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.2 (-6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -1.3 (+4.7) | 128.5 (-4.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -1.8 (+4.2) | 127.1 (-3.1) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -1.9 (+4.1) | 127.7 (-3.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -2.0 (+4.0) | 127.5 (-3.5) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | MRST 58 – 46 NIA |
| Feb 23, 2025 | MRST 64 – 61 NIA |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MRST 67 – 65 NIA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | MRST 63 – 62 NIA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | NIA 67 – 62 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 9-4 | 5-9 |
| Away | 8-8 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.2 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#208) | -5.5 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#230) | -0.85 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#245) | -1.15 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#235) | 0.466 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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