Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | NIA +145 MRST -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +2 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | MRST -1.1 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -1.8 (-0.2) | 129.3 (+2.7) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -1.7 (-0.3) | 130.0 (+2.0) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -1.4 (-0.6) | 130.3 (+1.7) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -2.2 (+0.2) | 131.2 (+0.8) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | MRST 58 – 46 NIA |
| Feb 23, 2025 | MRST 64 – 61 NIA |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MRST 65 – 59 NIA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | MRST 63 – 62 NIA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | NIA 67 – 62 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 20-10 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 13-7 |
| Home | 6-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 64.5 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#305) | -4.1 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#297) | 0.46 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#308) | -0.03 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#305) | 0.512 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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