Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | NIA -150 MRST +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +5 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | NIA -1.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (-7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -1.1 (+3.9) | 135.2 (-6.2) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -0.8 (+4.2) | 131.3 (-2.3) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -2.1 (+2.9) | 135.3 (-6.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -1.5 (+3.5) | 135.1 (-6.1) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | MRST 58 – 46 NIA |
| Feb 23, 2025 | MRST 64 – 61 NIA |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MRST 67 – 65 NIA |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MRST 65 – 59 NIA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | MRST 63 – 62 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 5-9 | 9-4 |
| Away | 10-6 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 62.2 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#268) | -3.7 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#266) | -0.90 (#264) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#275) | -1.28 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#276) | 0.437 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 40.7% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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