Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | NIA +360 MRST -470 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +12 | 104 | Lost |
| Massey | MRST -11.7 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.7 (-20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -10.7 (-1.3) | 128.2 (-24.2) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -10.7 (-1.3) | 124.9 (-20.9) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -9.9 (-2.1) | 126.9 (-22.9) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -10.2 (-1.8) | 129.3 (-25.3) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 23, 2025 | MRST 64 – 61 NIA |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MRST 67 – 65 NIA |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MRST 65 – 59 NIA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | MRST 63 – 62 NIA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | NIA 67 – 62 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-22 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 12-8 |
| Home | 6-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 2-14 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.3 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 63.9 |
| Massey | -14.1 (#350) | 0.6 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.45 (#348) | -0.01 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.12 (#346) | -0.09 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.398 (#342) | 0.521 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 28.2 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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