Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | MRST -340 NIA +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +3 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | MRST -9.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -7.1 (-4.1) | 129.7 (-4.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -7.9 (-4.9) | 132.4 (-7.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -7.0 (-4.0) | 133.9 (-8.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -7.9 (-4.9) | 134.9 (-9.9) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | MRST 58 – 46 NIA |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MRST 67 – 65 NIA |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MRST 65 – 59 NIA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | MRST 63 – 62 NIA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | NIA 67 – 62 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-10 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-4 | 6-7 |
| Away | 9-5 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.5 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#231) | -9.7 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#142) | -1.53 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#179) | -2.23 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#130) | 0.437 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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