Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | SDAK +120 SDST -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +18 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -1.5 (-16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (+9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -1.4 (-16.6) | 135.6 (+10.4) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -3.3 (-14.7) | 134.1 (+11.9) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -1.6 (-16.4) | 136.2 (+9.8) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -1.8 (-16.2) | 137.2 (+8.8) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SDAK 75 – 70 SDST |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SDAK 68 – 67 SDST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | SDST 94 – 91 SDAK |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SDST 90 – 71 SDAK |
| Feb 4, 2024 | SDST 70 – 67 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-6 | 10-2 |
| Away | 2-11 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#303) | -2.4 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#221) | 0.19 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#233) | -0.23 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#242) | 0.534 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 6.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 19.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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