Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Under |
| Money | SPU -110 FAIR +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +4 | 108 | Lost |
| Massey | SPU -1.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.6 (-13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -0.3 (-3.7) | 128.2 (-20.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -2.0 (-6.0) | 124.3 (-16.3) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -0.3 (-4.3) | 128.7 (-20.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -0.4 (-4.4) | 128.3 (-20.3) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FAIR 74 – 55 SPU |
| Feb 15, 2026 | SPU 83 – 74 FAIR |
| Dec 30, 2025 | SPU 70 – 66 FAIR |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SPU 65 – 52 FAIR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | SPU 68 – 63 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 9-11 |
| Home | 8-6 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.9 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#306) | -5.2 (#259) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#317) | -1.42 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.06 (#316) | -1.85 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#311) | 0.436 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.4% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 16.0% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.5% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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