Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | SPU -175 FAIR +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +9 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -3.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (+12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -2.8 (+6.2) | 137.3 (+19.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -2.6 (+6.4) | 139.3 (+17.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -2.6 (+6.4) | 139.8 (+17.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -2.9 (+6.1) | 139.5 (+17.5) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FAIR 74 – 55 SPU |
| Dec 30, 2025 | SPU 70 – 66 FAIR |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SPU 65 – 52 FAIR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | SPU 68 – 63 FAIR |
| Feb 10, 2024 | FAIR 64 – 62 SPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-12 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-1 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#234) | -5.7 (#259) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#196) | -0.40 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#210) | -0.78 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#152) | 0.507 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.5% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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