Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | SPU +170 FAIR -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +2 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | SPU -1.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -0.3 (-1.7) | 133.3 (-7.3) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -0.9 (-2.9) | 132.7 (-6.7) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -0.6 (-2.6) | 132.0 (-6.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -0.1 (-1.9) | 132.9 (-6.9) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FAIR 74 – 55 SPU |
| Feb 15, 2026 | SPU 83 – 74 FAIR |
| Dec 30, 2025 | SPU 70 – 66 FAIR |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SPU 65 – 52 FAIR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | SPU 68 – 63 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 14-6 |
| Home | 8-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-8 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.8 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#212) | -0.5 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#228) | -0.18 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#234) | -0.35 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#196) | 0.506 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.2% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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