Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | FAIR -154 SPU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +5 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -1.7 (-6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (-1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -2.3 (-7.3) | 129.8 (+1.2) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -1.5 (-6.5) | 129.0 (+2.0) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -1.8 (-6.8) | 128.0 (+3.0) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -1.7 (-6.7) | 126.3 (+4.7) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FAIR 74 – 55 SPU |
| Feb 15, 2026 | SPU 83 – 74 FAIR |
| Dec 30, 2025 | SPU 70 – 66 FAIR |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SPU 65 – 52 FAIR |
| Feb 10, 2024 | FAIR 64 – 62 SPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 10-6 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 63.8 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#166) | -1.7 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#167) | -0.31 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#176) | -0.51 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#129) | 0.502 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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