Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | SPU -135 FAIR +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +19 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | SPU -1.4 (-20.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (-12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -1.4 (-20.4) | 135.1 (-6.1) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -1.4 (-20.4) | 134.6 (-5.6) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -1.3 (-20.3) | 136.0 (-7.0) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -1.4 (-20.4) | 134.4 (-5.4) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | SPU 83 – 74 FAIR |
| Dec 30, 2025 | SPU 70 – 66 FAIR |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SPU 65 – 52 FAIR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | SPU 68 – 63 FAIR |
| Feb 10, 2024 | FAIR 64 – 62 SPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-12 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-1 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#237) | -5.8 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#188) | -0.37 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#209) | -0.77 (#229) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#147) | 0.507 (#171) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.1% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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