Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR -142 SPU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +4 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -7.4 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -4.0 (-8.0) | 140.6 (-4.6) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -4.1 (-8.1) | 139.9 (-3.9) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -4.3 (-8.3) | 139.2 (-3.2) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -4.2 (-8.2) | 139.2 (-3.2) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FAIR 74 – 55 SPU |
| Feb 15, 2026 | SPU 83 – 74 FAIR |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SPU 65 – 52 FAIR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | SPU 68 – 63 FAIR |
| Feb 10, 2024 | FAIR 64 – 62 SPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 17-12 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-4 | 13-1 |
| Away | 7-8 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 69.1 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#249) | -8.7 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#187) | -1.69 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#213) | -2.83 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#198) | 0.413 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 63.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 38.8% |
Game Analysis
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