Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | SPU -185 FAIR +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +13 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -8.1 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.1 (-13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -4.1 (+8.9) | 130.3 (-13.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -4.7 (+8.3) | 127.6 (-10.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -4.8 (+8.2) | 130.7 (-13.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -5.1 (+7.9) | 131.1 (-14.1) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FAIR 74 – 55 SPU |
| Feb 15, 2026 | SPU 83 – 74 FAIR |
| Dec 30, 2025 | SPU 70 – 66 FAIR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | SPU 68 – 63 FAIR |
| Feb 10, 2024 | FAIR 64 – 62 SPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-16 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 8-12 |
| Home | 6-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#281) | -12.0 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#297) | -1.32 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#298) | -2.15 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#298) | 0.442 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 37.9% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.7% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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