Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | UCSB -500 UCR +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +1 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -7.9 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.1 (-5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -6.4 (-7.4) | 133.9 (-4.9) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -5.6 (-6.6) | 131.6 (-2.6) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -6.8 (-7.8) | 135.0 (-6.0) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -6.6 (-7.6) | 135.0 (-6.0) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UCSB 70 – 59 UCR |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UCSB 76 – 68 UCR |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UCR 81 – 69 UCSB |
| Jan 17, 2025 | UCSB 66 – 63 UCR |
| Mar 10, 2024 | UCR 81 – 64 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 10-4 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#98) | 0.7 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#61) | 0.45 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#76) | 0.12 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#107) | 0.501 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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