Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | MONT -333 IDST +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +29 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | MONT -6.7 (+22.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -5.3 (+23.7) | 140.3 (-1.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -5.3 (+23.7) | 136.3 (+2.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -4.5 (+24.5) | 139.7 (-0.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -4.5 (+24.5) | 140.9 (-1.9) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | IDST 73 – 69 MONT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MONT 69 – 60 IDST |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MONT 81 – 68 IDST |
| Jan 19, 2025 | IDST 86 – 62 MONT |
| Mar 13, 2024 | MONT 72 – 58 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 10-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#174) | -2.9 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#205) | -1.40 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#186) | -1.03 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#212) | 0.414 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.9% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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