Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | MONT -200 IDST +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +13 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | MONT -3.4 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -4.4 (+8.6) | 145.9 (+3.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -2.6 (+10.4) | 143.6 (+5.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -4.4 (+8.6) | 146.9 (+2.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -4.2 (+8.8) | 147.3 (+1.7) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | IDST 73 – 69 MONT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MONT 69 – 60 IDST |
| Jan 19, 2025 | IDST 86 – 62 MONT |
| Mar 13, 2024 | MONT 72 – 58 IDST |
| Mar 5, 2024 | MONT 79 – 65 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 15-15 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-1 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-8 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#196) | -2.1 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#110) | -0.96 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#137) | -1.00 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#82) | 0.442 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 39.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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