Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | IDST -110 MONT -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +4 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | MONT -0.8 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -0.6 (+4.6) | 144.8 (-2.8) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -0.4 (+4.4) | 143.0 (-1.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -0.2 (+4.2) | 144.9 (-2.9) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -0.7 (+4.7) | 146.5 (-4.5) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | MONT 69 – 60 IDST |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MONT 81 – 68 IDST |
| Jan 19, 2025 | IDST 86 – 62 MONT |
| Mar 13, 2024 | MONT 72 – 58 IDST |
| Mar 5, 2024 | MONT 79 – 65 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-12 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#231) | -0.2 (#167) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#278) | -0.24 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#263) | -0.20 (#180) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#293) | 0.493 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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