Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | MONT -192 IDST +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +9 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | MONT -4.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (-22.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -5.3 (+3.7) | 146.7 (-17.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -3.5 (+5.5) | 146.2 (-17.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -5.1 (+3.9) | 145.2 (-16.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -5.2 (+3.8) | 145.7 (-16.7) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | IDST 73 – 69 MONT |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MONT 81 – 68 IDST |
| Jan 19, 2025 | IDST 86 – 62 MONT |
| Mar 13, 2024 | MONT 72 – 58 IDST |
| Mar 5, 2024 | MONT 79 – 65 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-9 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 77.6 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#153) | -0.8 (#181) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#181) | -0.53 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#158) | -0.69 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#171) | 0.461 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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