Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | MONT -450 IDST +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +14 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | MONT -9.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (+0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -9.5 (+4.5) | 145.4 (-1.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -8.2 (+5.8) | 140.6 (+3.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -9.8 (+4.2) | 146.6 (-2.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -8.9 (+5.1) | 146.3 (-2.3) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | IDST 73 – 69 MONT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MONT 69 – 60 IDST |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MONT 81 – 68 IDST |
| Jan 19, 2025 | IDST 86 – 62 MONT |
| Mar 13, 2024 | MONT 72 – 58 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 8-7 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#154) | -4.9 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#129) | -1.07 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#146) | -1.11 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#106) | 0.427 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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