Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | MONT -275 IDST +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +14 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | MONT -6.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -6.0 (+8.0) | 142.8 (-12.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -4.8 (+9.2) | 138.8 (-8.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -5.2 (+8.8) | 142.5 (-12.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -5.9 (+8.1) | 143.7 (-13.7) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | IDST 73 – 69 MONT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MONT 69 – 60 IDST |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MONT 81 – 68 IDST |
| Jan 19, 2025 | IDST 86 – 62 MONT |
| Mar 5, 2024 | MONT 79 – 65 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 8-7 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#150) | -4.8 (#259) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#125) | -0.86 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#141) | -0.90 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#92) | 0.438 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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