Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | IDST -125 MONT +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +24 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | IDST -4.6 (+19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -1.4 (+22.6) | 142.9 (+5.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -2.2 (+21.8) | 140.8 (+7.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -1.5 (+22.5) | 143.9 (+4.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -1.1 (+22.9) | 143.3 (+4.7) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | IDST 73 – 69 MONT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MONT 69 – 60 IDST |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MONT 81 – 68 IDST |
| Mar 13, 2024 | MONT 72 – 58 IDST |
| Mar 5, 2024 | MONT 79 – 65 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-15 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 10-4 | 15-1 |
| Away | 5-10 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#193) | -2.7 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#274) | 0.67 (#112) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#267) | 0.51 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#293) | 0.547 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 40.3% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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