Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | HPU -188 PRES +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +8 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -7.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (-27.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -4.8 (+3.2) | 144.6 (-24.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -4.8 (+3.2) | 143.3 (-23.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -4.8 (+3.2) | 146.9 (-26.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -5.3 (+2.7) | 148.7 (-28.7) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | HPU 79 – 73 PRES |
| Jan 30, 2026 | HPU 84 – 81 PRES |
| Feb 1, 2025 | HPU 84 – 72 PRES |
| Jan 19, 2025 | HPU 77 – 66 PRES |
| Feb 4, 2024 | HPU 78 – 68 PRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 1-17 |
| Home | 10-5 | 5-9 |
| Away | 2-11 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L18 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 70.4 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#278) | -9.9 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#261) | -2.64 (#356) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#283) | -2.71 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#271) | 0.352 (#357) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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