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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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86–36 on winners spread MAE 8.8 122 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Nebraska @ Purdue	+15.3	128.6	92%	55–73	✓
Saint Peter's @ Quinnipiac	+16.6	131.8	93%	51–58	✓
Siena @ Niagara	-0.4	129.7	49%	70–64	✓
Manhattan @ Mount St. Mary's	+10.5	134.9	83%	62–57	✗
Fairfield @ Iona	+20.1	136.2	97%	69–75	✓
Marist @ Canisius	+8.5	133.1	78%	76–58	✗
Villanova @ Butler	+4.8	131.6	67%	71–79	✓
Eastern Michigan @ Akron	+15.3	147.0	92%	67–104	✓
Michigan State @ Illinois	+7.9	137.1	76%	66–75	✓
VCU @ Dayton	+9.4	123.0	80%	63–62	✗
Utah State @ Nevada	+2.3	146.9	58%	70–85	✓
Kentucky @ Tennessee	+19.0	132.6	96%	63–56	✗
Miami @ NC State	+6.1	155.5	71%	81–83	✓
West Virginia @ Oklahoma	+2.4	138.4	59%	76–77	✓
Seton Hall @ DePaul	-4.6	138.0	34%	71–67	✓
Davidson @ George Mason	+7.0	137.1	74%	65–67	✓
Cleveland State @ IU Indianapolis	-11.3	129.3	15%	89–54	✓
Drexel @ Northeastern	-0.9	125.6	47%	76–55	✓
Loyola Chicago @ Saint Joseph's	+4.6	143.1	66%	55–86	✓
Wisconsin @ Indiana	+7.3	135.9	75%	45–63	✓
Holy Cross @ Lafayette	+9.7	124.1	81%	48–62	✓
Army @ Boston University	+4.3	148.2	65%	83–74	✗
Maine @ UMBC	+8.3	153.9	78%	77–85	✓
Bryant @ New Hampshire	-0.7	143.7	47%	87–81	✓
Columbia @ Harvard	+17.7	124.6	95%	51–73	✓
Georgia @ Ole Miss	+4.5	127.5	66%	62–58	✗
Western Carolina @ The Citadel	-1.1	145.0	46%	61–65	✗
Bowling Green @ Western Michigan	-1.0	148.0	46%	92–108	✗
Sacred Heart @ St. Francis Brooklyn	-1.2	136.5	46%	79–82	✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Central Connecticut	+3.1	148.7	61%	88–80	✗
Robert Morris @ Detroit Mercy	+6.6	143.6	72%	75–87	✓
North Alabama @ Queens University	+10.4	155.9	83%	78–107	✓
North Dakota State @ Omaha	+1.4	144.9	55%	78–65	✗
Kansas State @ TCU	+1.9	147.7	57%	68–82	✓
Arkansas @ Vanderbilt	-4.8	141.7	33%	84–97	✗
Providence @ Creighton	+6.5	150.3	72%	67–73	✓
UCF @ Tulane	-2.8	146.8	40%	69–77	✗
Bucknell @ Colgate	+14.2	152.6	90%	65–71	✓
American University @ Lehigh	-4.3	134.8	35%	62–78	✗
North Texas @ Florida Atlantic	+6.5	119.3	72%	62–66	✓
North Carolina @ Louisville	-17.1	148.3	6%	80–59	✓
UMass Lowell @ Binghamton	-7.0	146.6	26%	65–66	✗
Pennsylvania @ Dartmouth	-3.4	143.5	38%	71–75	✗
Princeton @ Brown	-4.5	131.3	34%	70–72	✗
UTSA @ Charlotte	+17.3	132.8	94%	54–72	✓
UNC Asheville @ Gardner-Webb	+6.0	130.6	71%	72–67	✗
Charleston Southern @ Radford	+10.2	143.4	82%	70–75	✓
Winthrop @ Campbell	+7.3	141.9	75%	78–74	✗
Miami (OH) @ Ball State	+15.4	153.2	92%	61–75	✓
Merrimack @ Stonehill	+8.6	124.1	78%	59–47	✗
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State	+3.7	130.0	63%	66–100	✓
Delaware @ Hofstra	+9.3	144.0	80%	62–86	✓
Stony Brook @ North Carolina A&T	+7.3	137.3	75%	59–61	✓
North Florida @ Kennesaw State	+10.6	148.1	83%	72–86	✓
Richmond @ St. Bonaventure	-0.1	124.9	49%	63–71	✗
Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech	-1.7	139.9	44%	71–60	✓
UTEP @ Rice	+5.5	145.4	69%	82–83	✓
Fordham @ La Salle	-0.2	145.4	49%	66–64	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Southern Utah	+6.0	162.1	71%	58–67	✓
Southern Miss @ Arkansas State	-9.5	126.9	19%	74–57	✓
Texas State @ UL Monroe	-3.1	128.0	39%	58–61	✗
North Dakota @ Denver	+6.6	144.9	73%	71–78	✓
Youngstown State @ Oakland	-7.1	164.8	26%	85–69	✓
Monmouth @ Towson	+20.9	133.4	97%	48–68	✓
Stetson @ Eastern Kentucky	+0.5	151.0	52%	70–85	✓
Missouri @ Florida	+6.2	160.3	71%	64–73	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Morehead State	-2.9	143.7	40%	91–86	✓
Iowa State @ Kansas	+5.8	130.2	70%	60–62	✓
Virginia @ Florida State	-10.1	131.7	18%	67–58	✓
Elon @ Charleston	+24.5	149.5	99%	60–78	✓
South Carolina State @ North Carolina Central	+17.4	160.4	94%	67–71	✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Florida A&M	-2.1	132.4	43%	67–54	✓
Tulsa @ Wichita State	+13.0	131.8	88%	69–73	✓
Cincinnati @ SMU	-4.4	144.9	34%	54–52	✓
Grambling @ Southern	+4.4	135.2	66%	73–81	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Bethune-Cookman	+6.8	135.6	73%	71–77	✓
Morgan State @ Coppin State	+0.8	159.2	53%	83–66	✗
Arizona State @ Oregon State	-8.0	126.0	23%	74–69	✓
UIC @ Murray State	+9.4	140.5	80%	64–81	✓
Valparaiso @ Evansville	+1.9	136.1	57%	76–69	✗
UAB @ Louisiana Tech	-1.9	164.0	43%	81–74	✓
Howard @ Norfolk State	+9.4	140.6	80%	86–84	✗
Northwestern State @ Nicholls	+1.4	142.4	55%	63–77	✓
Saint Louis @ George Washington	-1.1	156.8	46%	81–74	✓
Mercer @ East Tennessee State	+4.8	135.1	67%	68–55	✗
UNC Greensboro @ Furman	+5.8	135.4	70%	88–80	✗
Long Island University @ Saint Francis	+14.1	157.3	90%	68–87	✓
Louisiana @ South Alabama	+0.3	143.6	51%	79–76	✗
Troy @ App State	-2.6	132.5	41%	45–58	✗
Tennessee State @ Tennessee Tech	+4.8	147.4	67%	63–71	✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Northridge	-10.6	135.2	17%	71–57	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Bellarmine	-6.2	133.2	29%	41–61	✗
LSU @ Alabama	+19.3	148.5	96%	66–106	✓
Delaware State @ Maryland Eastern Shore	+12.9	136.0	88%	66–68	✓
LSU New Orleans @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+16.2	155.2	93%	79–97	✓
Houston Christian @ McNeese	+10.6	150.5	83%	90–81	✗
Rhode Island @ Massachusetts	+8.2	139.4	77%	65–75	✓
Buffalo @ Central Michigan	+0.3	144.5	51%	78–87	✓
Toledo @ Northern Illinois	-7.3	161.1	25%	84–67	✓
Little Rock @ Eastern Illinois	+3.6	143.6	63%	63–70	✓
Duke @ Clemson	-0.2	139.5	49%	64–72	✗
Northern Iowa @ Belmont	+7.5	143.6	75%	72–76	✓
Navy @ Loyola Maryland	-4.2	131.9	35%	67–69	✗
Abilene Christian @ Tarleton State	+7.5	142.0	75%	63–72	✓
William & Mary @ UNC Wilmington	+12.6	130.8	87%	69–67	✗
UC San Diego @ Cal State Bakersfield	+3.2	116.6	62%	52–56	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Davis	+6.2	141.9	71%	79–83	✓
Northern Arizona @ Sacramento State	+8.4	142.3	78%	56–59	✓
Austin Peay @ Lipscomb	+8.8	137.6	79%	72–86	✓
Jacksonville @ Jacksonville State	-3.3	121.4	38%	68–62	✓
SE Louisiana @ Incarnate Word	-4.8	148.2	33%	75–71	✓
Lamar @ East Texas A&M	+12.0	142.8	86%	66–81	✓
Oklahoma State @ Baylor	+5.8	141.2	70%	58–74	✓
Alcorn State @ Texas Southern	+3.0	146.9	61%	79–74	✗
California @ Washington	+10.0	127.6	82%	78–81	✓
Texas A&M @ South Carolina	-8.1	133.8	23%	94–53	✓
Chattanooga @ Samford	+3.7	151.9	63%	74–75	✓
Weber State @ Montana State	+9.6	127.2	81%	52–67	✓
Arizona @ Oregon	-3.5	156.7	38%	68–87	✗
Jackson State @ Prairie View A&M	+7.5	139.3	75%	50–59	✓
Lindenwood @ SIU Edwardsville	+17.2	137.5	94%	58–68	✓
Idaho @ Eastern Washington	+10.4	146.2	83%	74–95	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.