Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | TULN -155 UCF +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +8 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -1.5 (+9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -1.7 (+9.7) | 147.8 (-1.8) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -2.4 (+10.4) | 145.2 (+0.8) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -1.1 (+9.1) | 148.6 (-2.6) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -1.0 (+9.0) | 148.0 (-2.0) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2022 | TULN 82 – 67 UCF |
| Jan 22, 2022 | UCF 68 – 66 TULN |
| Feb 20, 2021 | UCF 84 – 81 TULN |
| Feb 13, 2021 | UCF 53 – 49 TULN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-11 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-4 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 65.5 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#95) | 10.4 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#108) | 1.95 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#105) | 2.77 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#121) | 0.602 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.6 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 19.3% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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