Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +2 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -8.2 (-6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -7.1 (-5.1) | 144.5 (-10.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -7.5 (-5.5) | 142.4 (-8.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -6.9 (-4.9) | 143.9 (-9.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -6.8 (-4.8) | 142.9 (-8.9) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2023 | TULN 77 – 69 UCF |
| Mar 4, 2022 | TULN 82 – 67 UCF |
| Feb 20, 2021 | UCF 84 – 81 TULN |
| Feb 13, 2021 | UCF 53 – 49 TULN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-12 | 14-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#87) | 1.9 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#73) | 0.16 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#69) | -0.05 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#83) | 0.509 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 20.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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