Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | UCF -175 TULN +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +4 | 102 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -5.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.5 (-27.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -4.6 (-0.6) | 133.0 (-31.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -3.6 (+0.4) | 131.4 (-29.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -4.7 (-0.7) | 133.4 (-31.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -4.5 (-0.5) | 133.9 (-31.9) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2023 | TULN 77 – 69 UCF |
| Mar 4, 2022 | TULN 82 – 67 UCF |
| Jan 22, 2022 | UCF 68 – 66 TULN |
| Feb 20, 2021 | UCF 84 – 81 TULN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-12 | 10-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-12 |
| Home | 6-3 | 6-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#117) | 0.3 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#88) | 0.58 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#82) | 0.99 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#114) | 0.478 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 37.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 43.6% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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