Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | TULN +110 UCF -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +3 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | UCF -0.9 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.3 (+38.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -0.0 (-3.0) | 128.8 (+36.2) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TULN -0.6 (-3.6) | 130.7 (+34.3) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -0.2 (-3.2) | 128.6 (+36.4) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -0.4 (-2.6) | 129.8 (+35.2) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2023 | TULN 77 – 69 UCF |
| Mar 4, 2022 | TULN 82 – 67 UCF |
| Jan 22, 2022 | UCF 68 – 66 TULN |
| Feb 13, 2021 | UCF 53 – 49 TULN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-13 | 11-12 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-6 | 6-3 |
| Away | 3-6 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#154) | 4.1 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#121) | 1.09 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#113) | 1.66 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#197) | 0.537 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.4% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.5% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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