Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +15 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | TULN -2.0 (+13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -1.7 (+13.3) | 145.6 (+3.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -0.1 (+15.1) | 143.4 (+5.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -2.3 (+12.7) | 146.6 (+2.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -2.3 (+12.7) | 147.4 (+1.6) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2023 | TULN 77 – 69 UCF |
| Jan 22, 2022 | UCF 68 – 66 TULN |
| Feb 20, 2021 | UCF 84 – 81 TULN |
| Feb 13, 2021 | UCF 53 – 49 TULN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-15 | 18-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-4 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#103) | 6.0 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#132) | 1.40 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#139) | 1.77 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#132) | 0.545 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 20.0% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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