Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | LIP -250 APSU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +14 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | LIP -9.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (+19.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -6.2 (+7.8) | 142.1 (+15.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -5.9 (+8.1) | 139.8 (+18.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -6.5 (+7.5) | 142.4 (+15.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -6.3 (+7.7) | 142.0 (+16.0) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | APSU 87 – 76 LIP |
| Jan 18, 2026 | LIP 82 – 78 APSU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | LIP 95 – 78 APSU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | LIP 88 – 60 APSU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | LIP 90 – 85 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIP | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 3-15 |
| Home | 13-2 | 7-8 |
| Away | 7-11 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 63.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#192) | -6.2 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#205) | -1.11 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#209) | -1.50 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#223) | 0.458 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIP | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 16.2% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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