Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | LAF -333 HC +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +14 | 110 | Won |
| Massey | LAF -10.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.2 (-14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -6.8 (+7.2) | 128.4 (-18.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -7.3 (+6.7) | 128.0 (-18.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -6.7 (+7.3) | 128.0 (-18.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -7.0 (+7.0) | 128.5 (-18.5) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | HC 82 – 77 LAF |
| Feb 18, 2026 | LAF 86 – 83 HC |
| Jan 17, 2026 | LAF 74 – 55 HC |
| Mar 5, 2025 | LAF 69 – 68 HC |
| Feb 19, 2025 | HC 74 – 69 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-23 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 5-7 | 6-9 |
| Away | 5-16 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#240) | -10.8 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#318) | -1.91 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#307) | -2.27 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#271) | 0.400 (#329) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 15.2% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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