Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | LAF -198 HC +164 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HC +5 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | LAF -3.8 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (+19.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -2.5 (-7.5) | 140.7 (+18.3) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -2.6 (-7.6) | 140.1 (+18.9) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -2.3 (-7.3) | 138.4 (+20.6) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -2.7 (-7.7) | 140.7 (+18.3) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | LAF 86 – 83 HC |
| Jan 17, 2026 | LAF 74 – 55 HC |
| Mar 5, 2025 | LAF 69 – 68 HC |
| Feb 19, 2025 | HC 74 – 69 LAF |
| Jan 11, 2025 | LAF 82 – 65 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-10 | 6-8 |
| Away | 5-11 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -10.7 (#318) | -11.5 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#328) | -2.13 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.67 (#338) | -2.71 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#320) | 0.406 (#350) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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