Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | LAF -245 HC +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +17 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | LAF -4.7 (+12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -1.2 (+15.8) | 135.2 (+11.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -3.7 (+13.3) | 135.1 (+11.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -2.1 (+14.9) | 135.7 (+11.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -2.0 (+15.0) | 135.8 (+11.2) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | HC 82 – 77 LAF |
| Feb 18, 2026 | LAF 86 – 83 HC |
| Jan 17, 2026 | LAF 74 – 55 HC |
| Mar 5, 2025 | LAF 69 – 68 HC |
| Feb 19, 2025 | HC 74 – 69 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-6 | 7-6 |
| Away | 3-14 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#270) | -6.8 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#302) | 0.32 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#287) | -0.17 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#313) | 0.515 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 40.3% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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