Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | HC +135 LAF -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HC +5 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | HC -2.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HC -1.4 (+3.6) | 133.2 (+9.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HC -1.3 (+3.7) | 135.4 (+7.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HC -1.1 (+3.9) | 135.7 (+7.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HC -1.4 (+3.6) | 134.8 (+8.2) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | HC 82 – 77 LAF |
| Feb 18, 2026 | LAF 86 – 83 HC |
| Jan 17, 2026 | LAF 74 – 55 HC |
| Mar 5, 2025 | LAF 69 – 68 HC |
| Jan 11, 2025 | LAF 82 – 65 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-6 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-13 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#309) | -8.0 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#280) | -1.64 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#290) | -1.82 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#237) | 0.422 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 15.3% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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