Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | LAF -130 HC +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +19 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | LAF -0.6 (+18.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HC -0.8 (+19.8) | 134.3 (-5.3) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HC -0.1 (+19.1) | 136.1 (-7.1) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HC -0.9 (+19.9) | 135.6 (-6.6) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HC -0.8 (+19.8) | 135.7 (-6.7) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | HC 82 – 77 LAF |
| Feb 18, 2026 | LAF 86 – 83 HC |
| Mar 5, 2025 | LAF 69 – 68 HC |
| Feb 19, 2025 | HC 74 – 69 LAF |
| Jan 11, 2025 | LAF 82 – 65 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-10 | 6-8 |
| Away | 5-11 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -11.8 (#330) | -8.9 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.95 (#350) | -1.26 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.57 (#348) | -1.88 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.356 (#358) | 0.442 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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