Betting Lines
| Spread | HC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | HC -122 LAF +102 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +3 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | HC -3.2 (-6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (+31.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HC -2.1 (-5.1) | 131.8 (+37.2) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HC -2.3 (-5.3) | 133.6 (+35.4) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HC -2.3 (-5.3) | 134.4 (+34.6) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HC -2.1 (-5.1) | 132.9 (+36.1) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | HC 82 – 77 LAF |
| Jan 17, 2026 | LAF 74 – 55 HC |
| Mar 5, 2025 | LAF 69 – 68 HC |
| Feb 19, 2025 | HC 74 – 69 LAF |
| Jan 11, 2025 | LAF 82 – 65 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-8 | 6-10 |
| Away | 4-14 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -10.9 (#318) | -11.1 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.97 (#330) | -2.18 (#338) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.57 (#332) | -2.90 (#342) |
| RPI | 0.405 (#341) | 0.407 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 22.0% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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