Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | LAF -300 HC +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +1 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | LAF -5.1 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -4.2 (-3.2) | 142.1 (-5.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -5.0 (-4.0) | 140.0 (-3.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -4.0 (-3.0) | 140.0 (-3.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -4.4 (-3.4) | 142.1 (-5.1) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | HC 82 – 77 LAF |
| Feb 18, 2026 | LAF 86 – 83 HC |
| Jan 17, 2026 | LAF 74 – 55 HC |
| Feb 19, 2025 | HC 74 – 69 LAF |
| Jan 11, 2025 | LAF 82 – 65 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-6 | 7-6 |
| Away | 3-14 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#283) | -9.2 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#312) | -1.32 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#294) | -1.84 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#313) | 0.462 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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