Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | SOU -163 GRAM +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +8 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -4.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (+18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -2.1 (+5.9) | 139.6 (+14.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -2.8 (+5.2) | 139.4 (+14.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -2.2 (+5.8) | 139.0 (+15.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -2.5 (+5.5) | 140.6 (+13.4) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SOU 87 – 73 GRAM |
| Jan 17, 2026 | SOU 71 – 53 GRAM |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GRAM 65 – 62 SOU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SOU 71 – 64 GRAM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | SOU 67 – 60 GRAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 9-2 | 11-1 |
| Away | 5-12 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 63.1 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#204) | -1.6 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#218) | 0.06 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#226) | 0.46 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#209) | 0.490 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 21.4% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.8% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.2% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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