Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Southern Jaguars
62 65 OT
FINAL Neutral Conference SWAC
Grambling Tigers
Southwestern Athletic Conference · Gateway Center (Neutral) · March 12, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread SOU -5.5 Away covered
O/U 125.5 Over
Money SOU -250 / GRAM +210
Model Predictions
Spread Total SOU win
Actual GRAM +3 127 Lost
Massey SOU -6.2 (-9.2)
Massey Totals 126.4 (+0.6)
Bradley-Terry 90%
Weighted B-T 95%
Baseline Plus ML SOU -6.8 (-9.8) 129.7 (-2.7) 70%
Model 4 ML SOU -6.5 (-9.5) 128.7 (-1.7) 69%
Model 3 ML SOU -6.5 (-9.5) 129.0 (-2.0) 75%
Baseline ML SOU -6.2 (-9.2) 128.1 (-1.1) 67%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 21, 2026 SOU 8773 GRAM
Jan 17, 2026 SOU 7153 GRAM
Feb 22, 2025 SOU 7164 GRAM
Jan 18, 2025 SOU 6760 GRAM
Feb 24, 2024 GRAM 6357 SOU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SOU GRAM
Overall 20-12 12-22
Conference 15-3 7-11
Home 11-1 6-7
Away 9-10 4-12
Neutral 0-1 2-3
Last 5 3-2 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.6 64.4
Avg Pts Against 69.5 69.3
Massey -3.8 (#229) -10.0 (#324)
Bradley-Terry -0.38 (#205) -2.62 (#351)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.24 (#182) -3.18 (#351)
RPI 0.503 (#171) 0.419 (#324)
Shooting & Four Factors SOU GRAM
FG% 42.5% 42.2%
3PT% 31.6% 32.3%
REB / G 35.8 32.1
OREB / G 12.1 8.6
AST / TO 0.97 0.84
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.8% 47.9%
TOV% 18.2% 19.4%
ORB% 33.8% 26.2%
FT Rate 25.1% 25.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.6% 50.3%
Opp TOV% 21.1% 18.1%
DRB% 71.6% 69.9%
Opp FT Rate 29.4% 23.7%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.