Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | SOU -250 GRAM +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GRAM +3 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -6.2 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -6.2 (-9.2) | 128.1 (-1.1) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -5.8 (-8.8) | 128.3 (-1.3) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -6.4 (-9.4) | 129.2 (-2.2) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -5.9 (-8.9) | 126.1 (+0.9) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SOU 87 – 73 GRAM |
| Jan 17, 2026 | SOU 71 – 53 GRAM |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SOU 71 – 64 GRAM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | SOU 67 – 60 GRAM |
| Feb 24, 2024 | GRAM 63 – 57 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 12-22 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-1 | 6-7 |
| Away | 9-10 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#229) | -10.0 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#205) | -2.62 (#351) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#182) | -3.18 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#171) | 0.419 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.