Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | SOU -238 GRAM +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +14 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -2.9 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (+12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -2.3 (+11.7) | 141.5 (+18.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -4.2 (+9.8) | 139.3 (+20.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -2.4 (+11.6) | 138.7 (+21.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -2.3 (+11.7) | 140.1 (+19.9) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | SOU 71 – 53 GRAM |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GRAM 65 – 62 SOU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SOU 71 – 64 GRAM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | SOU 67 – 60 GRAM |
| Feb 24, 2024 | GRAM 63 – 57 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-4 | 7-5 |
| Away | 7-12 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -8.2 (#292) | -8.2 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#268) | -1.30 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#260) | -1.69 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#270) | 0.446 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 31.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.7% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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