Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | SOU -600 GRAM +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +7 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -10.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -9.7 (-2.7) | 133.6 (-6.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -8.6 (-1.6) | 132.8 (-5.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -10.1 (-3.1) | 135.3 (-8.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -10.1 (-3.1) | 134.1 (-7.1) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SOU 87 – 73 GRAM |
| Jan 17, 2026 | SOU 71 – 53 GRAM |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GRAM 65 – 62 SOU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SOU 71 – 64 GRAM |
| Feb 24, 2024 | GRAM 63 – 57 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 12-22 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-1 | 6-7 |
| Away | 9-10 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#200) | -9.2 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#178) | -3.26 (#358) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#192) | -4.17 (#360) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#153) | 0.359 (#357) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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