Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | GRAM +135 SOU -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GRAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +7 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -3.2 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -3.5 (-3.5) | 131.6 (+3.4) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -3.9 (-3.1) | 131.9 (+3.1) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -2.8 (-4.2) | 133.1 (+1.9) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -3.7 (-3.3) | 132.0 (+3.0) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SOU 87 – 73 GRAM |
| Jan 17, 2026 | SOU 71 – 53 GRAM |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GRAM 65 – 62 SOU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | SOU 67 – 60 GRAM |
| Feb 24, 2024 | GRAM 63 – 57 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GRAM | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-22 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 6-7 | 11-1 |
| Away | 4-12 | 9-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.4 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#322) | -3.5 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.51 (#348) | -0.12 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.05 (#346) | -0.10 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#330) | 0.504 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GRAM | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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