Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | SOU -163 GRAM +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GRAM +6 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -7.9 (-13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.5 (-12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -4.9 (-10.9) | 133.8 (-13.8) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -4.5 (-10.5) | 132.7 (-12.7) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -5.1 (-11.1) | 132.6 (-12.6) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -4.9 (-10.9) | 132.8 (-12.8) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SOU 87 – 73 GRAM |
| Jan 17, 2026 | SOU 71 – 53 GRAM |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GRAM 65 – 62 SOU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SOU 71 – 64 GRAM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | SOU 67 – 60 GRAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 14-4 |
| Home | 11-2 | 9-3 |
| Away | 7-11 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#248) | -8.9 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#154) | -0.70 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#186) | -0.95 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#146) | 0.483 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.7% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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