Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | NORF -350 HOW +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +2 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | NORF -10.2 (-12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (+29.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -8.5 (-10.5) | 139.4 (+30.6) | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -8.2 (-10.2) | 138.7 (+31.3) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -7.9 (-9.9) | 141.1 (+28.9) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -7.7 (-9.7) | 140.1 (+29.9) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | HOW 84 – 76 NORF |
| Jan 31, 2026 | HOW 88 – 60 NORF |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NORF 81 – 69 HOW |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NORF 92 – 75 HOW |
| Mar 15, 2024 | HOW 80 – 74 NORF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 11-3 |
| Home | 10-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 6-8 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#218) | -8.4 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#99) | -0.95 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#110) | -1.45 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#117) | 0.435 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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